Measuring progress towards reaching zero new HIV acquisitions among key populations in Québec (Canada) using routine surveillance data: a mathematical modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID) are disproportionately impacted by the HIV epidemic in Canada. Having the second-highest provincial diagnosis rate, an improved understanding of the epidemic among these populations in Québec could aid ongoing elimination efforts. We estimated HIV incidence and other epidemic indicators among MSM and PWID in Montréal and across Québec using a back-calculation model synthesizing surveillance data. METHODS: We developed a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model stratified by age, HIV status and disease progression, and clinical care stages. Using AIDS and HIV diagnoses data, including self-reported time since the last negative test and laboratory results of CD4 cell count at diagnosis, we estimated HIV incidence in each population over 1975-2020 by modelling a cubic M-spline. The prevalence, undiagnosed fraction, fraction diagnosed that started antiretroviral treatment (ART) and median time to diagnosis were also estimated. Since the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted testing, we excluded 2020 data and explored this in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: HIV incidence in all populations peaked early in the epidemic. In 2020, an estimated 97 (95% CrI: 33-227) and 266 (95% CrI: 103-508) HIV acquisitions occurred among MSM in Montréal and Québec, respectively. Among PWID, we estimated 2 (95% CrI: 0-14) and 6 (95% CrI: 1-26) HIV acquisitions in those same regions. With 2020 data, unless testing rates were reduced by 50%, these estimates decreased, except among Québec PWID, whose increased. Among all, the median time to diagnosis shortened to <2 years before 2020 and the undiagnosed fraction decreased to <10%. This fraction was higher in younger MSM, with 22% of 15-24 year-olds living with HIV in Montréal (95% CrI: 9-39%) and 31% in Québec (95% CrI: 17-48%) undiagnosed by 2020 year-end. Finally, ART access neared 100% in all diagnosed populations. CONCLUSIONS: HIV incidence has drastically decreased in MSM and PWID across Québec, alongside significant improvements in diagnosis and treatment coverage-and the 2013 introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis. Despite this, HIV transmission continued. Effective efforts to halt this transmission and rapidly diagnose people who acquired HIV, especially among younger MSM, are needed to achieve elimination. Further, as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission are understood, increased efforts may be needed to overcome these.

Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cities of Cameroon and Benin.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men, and overall. SETTING: Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin). METHODS: We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city population-specific and risk population-specific demographic/behavioral/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared with a scenario without COVID-19. RESULTS: A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31%, and 23% among men who have sex with men, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé, respectively, and 69%, 49%, and 23% among FSW, clients, and overall, respectively, in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in condom use after COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritized to minimize short-term excess HIV-related deaths.